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With the kickoff of the 2023 NFL season rapidly approaching, many fans have already locked into their fantasy leagues for the year and perhaps have already drafted their lineups.

For those who are waiting to find some preseason standouts before launching their drafts, however, they have the benefit of being able to evaluate more established data such as Average Draft Position before building their rosters.

Odds Comparison

Rookies always seem to be a crapshoot, not only for the actual NFL teams selecting them but also for the armchair general managers who draft them again for their fantasy football squads.

While it can seem obvious which first-year ballers are slated for a big role in their respective new offenses, injuries and disappointing slow starts can turn a promising steal with a rookie pick into a disaster pretty quickly. Just ask drafters of players such as Irv Smith Jr. and Montee Ball.

Rookie quarterbacks can be especially enticing, as there are only a few elite passers that warrant a high draft pick. Once the draft reaches the middle rounds, there’s usually little separation between the eighth selected QB and the 20th.

Taking a swing on a rookie gunslinger in these later rounds of the draft makes sense, as one could be getting great value while also loading up at other positions with their earlier picks.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts

Height: 6’4
Weight: 244
BMI: 29.7
Age: 20.9
NFL Draft Pick: Round 1, Pick 4
Draft Sharks Model Score: 8.47
Analytics Score: 0.68
Film Score: 0.50
Production Score: 0.40

While rookie quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the actual NFL Draft are usually guaranteed starters — examining the incumbent starting QB before the draft will usually give the foolproof answer — it’s pretty rare that a first-year man under center turns out to be a bona fide star, in both fantasy and reality.

This year, Anthony Richardson seems to be the darling for fantasy players out of all of the rookie quarterbacks entering this upcoming NFL season. He’s currently got an Average Draft Position that marks him as the 16th-highest drafted QB in fantasy football, ahead of established veterans such as Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Ryan Tannehill.

Anthony Richardson’s 2023 Projections & Outlook

Fantasy GMs are clearly banking on the fourth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to garner points for them both through the air and on the ground, as a dual-threat quarterback. Luckily for those betting on Richardson’s production in his rookie year, it seems that the most successful rookie gunslingers in fantasy happen to be those who can tuck the ball and scramble for yards on any given play.

Seven out of the ten highest-scoring rookie quarterbacks in fantasy football history have been dual-threat QBs, so perhaps Anthony Richardson will add his name to the list following this upcoming season.

Ladies & gentlemen, Anthony Richardson. pic.twitter.com/DgrkppBGY1

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) July 28, 2023

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| Title: Is Anthony Richardson worth his 16th QB Average Draft Position?
| Author: Andy Quach
| Date: August 8, 2023