basketball betting
As the college basketball regular season nears its conclusion, teams teetering on the NCAA Tournament bubble are facing dwindling chances to secure a coveted spot among the 68 contenders.
As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings is offering odds on the fate of nine Division 1 teams, all of whom find themselves on the bubble as of March 6. These odds present intriguing opportunities for bettors, with implied probabilities shaping the landscape of potential outcomes.
Click the image for live odds
This is a DraftKings chart showing the chances for those nine teams to qualify for or not make the tournament. Additionally, implied probability for both events are included in the chart:
| Team | Odds to make it | Implied odds | Odds to miss it | Implied odds |
| Wake Forest | +105 | 48.78% | -135 | 57.45% |
| Virginia | +150 | 40.00% | -195 | 66.10% |
| Pitt | +120 | 45.45% | -155 | 60.78% |
| Iowa | +180 | 35.71% | -235 | 70.15% |
| Colorado | -185 | 64.91% | +150 | 40.00% |
| Villanova | -350 | 77.78% | +280 | 26.32% |
| New Mexico | -145 | 59.18% | +115 | 46.51% |
| Utah | +150 | 40.00% | -195 | 66.10% |
| Providence | +295 | 25.32% | -390 | 79.59% |
Utilizing BartTorvik’s TourneyCast projections, we can assess the value of these betting options. BartTorvik’s model assesses the strength of each team’s resume and remaining schedules, offering insights into which bets hold the most promise.
In last week’s analysis, top-value bets included St. John’s (+145), SMU (+340), and Colorado (+145) to make the tournament. While St. John’s and Colorado are currently favored for at-large selections, SMU’s path hinges on success in the AAC Tournament.
This week’s top-value picks are as follows:
Pitt to make the NCAA Tournament (+120):
- KenPom ranking: 42nd
- NET ranking: 44th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 0
BartTorvik’s model suggests a 67.4% chance of Pitt making the field, significantly higher than DraftKings’ implied odds of 45.5%. With an expected value of $48.28 off a $100 wager, Pitt emerges as the standout value pick this week.
Wake Forest to miss the NCAA Tournament (-135):
- KenPom ranking: 28th
- NET ranking: 41st
- Quad 1 games remaining: 1
Despite recent losses denting Wake Forest’s chances, DraftKings’ odds present a compelling opportunity.
With BartTorvik giving the Demon Deacons just a 27.1% chance of making the tournament, there’s a $26.90 expected value off a $100 bet on Wake Forest missing the NCAA tournament.
Utah to make the NCAA Tournament (+150):
- KenPom ranking: 48th
- NET ranking: 46th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 1
Utah finds itself on the bubble’s edge, with pivotal matchups against Oregon State and Oregon.
BartTorvik’s 49.8% chance of making the Tournament offers better odds than DraftKings’ implied probability of 40%. With an expected value of $24.50, Utah presents an enticing value proposition for bettors.
As the NCAA Tournament approaches, these value picks offer strategic opportunities for bettors to capitalize on the uncertainty of the bubble.
Big week ahead 😤 pic.twitter.com/mPNrjdOqnu
— Utah Basketball (@UtahMBB) March 5, 2024
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| Title: Deciphering the NCAA Tournament Bubble: Analyzing Betting Odds for Best Expected Value Picks
| Date: March 6th, 2024
