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It is no secret that the Buffalo Bills are the top team in the NFL right now. They have all the makings of a Super Bowl winning team and through two weeks, we’ve seen enough to be confident in betting on their odds to win it all at some tremendous value.
They have been on a tear throughout the first two weeks of the season having won both of their games by 20 points each.
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Through those two weeks, they’ve managed to be the highest scoring offense in the league (36 ppg), and the second strongest defense as well allowing just 8.5 ppg to opponents.
Those that set the Super Bowl odds surely expected this from them as they opened up as the favorites to win back in February 2022 at 800 and have seen those odds slice in half to 450 following their Week 2 onslaught over the Tennessee Titans.
Their Super Bowl odds aren’t the only ones that have drastically improved since the start of the season. Their AFC Championship odds opened as the shortest of any team as well at 475 and have taken a steep dive down to 225. As for their AFC East divisional odds, as if the division wasn’t already theirs to lose, they opened at -225 and are now -375.
This ongoing trend of their odds getting significantly shorter each week they take the field might look great on paper for the Bills, but it is terrible for those looking to bet on them to win it all. Getting in on them sooner rather than later should be your first move as their Super Bowl odds could be in the 350 area if they defeat the Miami Dolphins in Week 3.
The major piece to the Bills early season success has been the godly play of Josh Allen. Through two weeks, Allen is tied for the most passing touchdowns (7), has the highest QB rating (87.1), and is fourth in passing yards (614). Not to mention, his odds to win the MVP are similar to the teams Super Bowl odds and are favored at 300 ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes ( 450), Justin Herbert ( 900), and Lamar Jackson ( 1000).
Some of the Bills other team props have also seen their odds shift to the point that the value might not be there anymore. One, in particular, has been their season win total after it opened at 10.5 in the preseason and now sits at 12.5. Their odds to make the playoffs are in a similar situation as they went from -550 odds to make it to now -4250.
Only 1 team in the top 10 of offense, defense, and special teams DVOA.
The Buffalo Bills are SCARY. 🗣️ #NFL | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/LfylLENLPC
— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) September 20, 2022
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The SportsBettingHandicapper simulation model, which simulates every Football game thousands’ of times, is up +47.65 units over the last three years. We have released 520 total games with 284 WINS and 236 losses ATS for a win % of 54.62%. A $100 bettor of our NFL would have netted a profit of $4,765 and, a $1,000 bettor would have won $47,650 just on NFL. We have released only a small number of football games so far this season.
| Title: Taking The Bills To Win It All Early Comes With Hue Value
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Sept 23, 2022
